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By Mary Fagan, Deputy City Editor
- Sunday 25 June 2000
News releases - Opec - Why you pay so much for gasoline and
other oil products - Opec
OPECNA [Opec News Agency] - Opec [subscription required] Centre
for the Global Energy Studies
Oxford Institute of Energy Studies International Energy Agency
Institute of Petroleum Oil Link [detailed oil industry information]
Prices - International Petroleum Exchange of London
Farewell to riches of the earth
SHEIKH YAMANI, the former Saudi oil minister, has told The
Telegraph that he expects a cataclysmic crash in the price of
oil in the next five years.
In an unprecedented personal interview, Sheikh Yamani also predicts
that, within a few decades, vast reserves of oil will lie unwanted
and the "oil age" will come to an end.
In an interview with Gyles Brandreth, he says: "Thirty
years from now there will be a huge amount of oil - and no buyers.
Oil will be left in the ground. The Stone Age came to an end,
not because we had a lack of stones, and the oil age will come
to an end not because we have a lack of oil."
Sheikh Yamani, who was Saudi Arabia's oil minister from 1962
to 1986 and is now in charge of an energy consultancy, became
the public face of the revolutionary oil policy that altered
the balance of world power in the early Seventies.
He predicts that a combination of recent oil discoveries,
the advance of new technology, and heavy investment in exploration
and production will all lead to a collapse in the price of crude.
He says: "I have no illusion - I am positive there will
be some time in the future a crash in the price of oil. I can
tell you with a degree of confidence that after five years there
will be a sharp drop in the price of oil."
Fuel-cell motor technology - which can produce electricity
by combining hydrogen from a variety of fuels with oxygen from
the air - will have a dramatic impact on the oil market, he predicts.
"This is coming before the end of the decade and will cut
gasoline consumption by almost 100 per cent. Imagine a country
like the United States, the largest consuming nation, where more
than 50 per cent of their consumption is gasoline. If you eliminate
that, what will happen?" Saudi Arabia, he says, "will
have serious economic difficulties".
His remarks follow last week's agreement by the Organisation
of Petroleum Exporting Countries - in which Saudi Arabia is the
dominant force - to a marginal rise in production of 708,000
barrels a day in response to mounting concern in the US and other
major consuming countries over the high price of oil. Prices
per barrel have been hovering at around $30, compared with $10
at the beginning of last year. But industry experts have given
warning that Opec's latest production increase will not be enough
to ease the price.
In the interview, Sheikh Yamani forecasts that prices will
stay high temporarily because of demand in the US and parts of
Asia. But he argues that this price obscures the likely long-term
effect of "huge" recent discoveries in regions such
as the Caspian Sea, Yemen, Egypt and Africa. He also predicts
that Iraq, which is capable of producing 6.5 million barrels
a day, will become a bigger supplier before long.
He says: "On the supply side it is easy to find oil and
produce it, and on the demand side there are so many new technologies,
especially when it comes to automobiles." Yamani believes
that automobile engine technologies including fuel cells - which
can produce electricity by combining hydrogen from a variety
of fuels with oxygen from the air - will drastically reduce oil
consumption and that, in the longer term, no one will need oil.
His views reflect those of many in the industry, although
few would go so far as to predict an end to the use of oil. Vincent
Cable, a former chief economist at Shell and now industry spokesman
for the Liberal Democrats, said: "People in the industry
would not be surprised by a vision of the future with relatively
weak prices, but punctuated by occasional price shocks." |